Model Architecture
Ensemble of gradient boosters, temporal transformers, and state-space models.
ŷt+h = ∑m wm · fm(Xt-h:t) + εt
OPEN+49.2%7D+5.6%
Sentiment shift
BEARISHBULLISH
Two market forces.One intelligence system.
Stonewell One turns market data into probabilities, drivers,
and validation records — so you can see what the model sees
and where uncertainty remains in one place.
The Market Signal Before the Story.
Measured
ResearchTransparent
MethodologyProbabilistic
EdgeData Driven
Decisions
ResearchTransparent
MethodologyProbabilistic
EdgeData Driven
Decisions
Methodology at a Glance
1. Data
Multi-asset, alternative & on-chain datasets.
2. Models
Ensemble of statistical, ML & macro models.
3. Probabilities
Bayesian framework quantifies outcomes.
4. Decisions
Clear insights. Measurable edge.
Transparent. Probabilistic. Built for real decisions.
We don't predict the future. We quantify it.Inside the Terminal
Five panels. One research workspace.
What the terminal puts in one place.☆AAPLApple Inc.
193.42+2.18 (+1.14%)
Hit Probability78%
Unrealized PnL+4.21%
Horizon10d
RegimeExpansion
SignalBullish
AAPL · 1D · NASDAQO 191.24H 194.21L 190.61C 193.42+2.18 (+1.14%)
TP 2 (50%)223.80
TP 1 (80%)210.00
Entry193.42
SL (20%)179.20
230.00220.00210.00200.00190.00180.00170.00160.00193.42Forecast Summary (10d)
- Direction
- Bullish
- Hit Probability
- 78%
- Confidence
- High
- Expected Move
- +6.8%
- Range (80%)
- 186.20 - 210.00
- Risk / Reward
- 2.1:1
Quick UniverseEquities first
View AllMethodology
The research checks behind every release.
Predictive Analytics for Market Research, Grounded in Probabilistic ModelingFeature Engineering
140+ engineered factors across price, volume, options, macro and alt data.
Top Feature Drivers
Order Flow Imbalance0.68
Realized Vol (Norm.)0.57
Term Structure Slope0.44
Cross-Asset Corr.0.36
Funding Rate (Crypto)0.31
Macro Surprise Index0.27
Explore All Features 140+ →Validation & Backtests
Walk-forward validation, out-of-sample checks, calibration scorecards, and rolling equity curves.
1.58Sharpe0.081Calibr. Score-12.6%Max Drawdown
Rolling Equity Curve (Out-of-Sample)
Coverage: Equities + Crypto →Release Discipline
Versioned releases with change logs, audit trail, and notes for what changed and why.
Recent Releases
v4.2.1MAY 03, 2025Stability patch + factor refresh
v4.2.0APR 26, 2025Regime model update & calibration
v4.1.0APR 18, 2025Feature set expansion (+22 factors)
v4.0.0APR 11, 2025Major architecture refresh
View full release history →Open by defaultMethodology, metrics, and tests are documented and accessible.
Versioned methodologyEvery change is tracked, explained, and reproducible.
Evidence over narrativeDecisions are driven by data, validated by out-of-sample tests.
Accountability built inAudit trails and release notes for every decision.
The Proof Chain
Every forecast leaves a trail.
From market data to final probability, each step is logged, versioned, and inspectable.EquitiesLast Live
AAPL189.32+0.42%
AMD168.55+1.12%
NVDA1,136.22+1.78%
TSLA186.40-0.21%
AMZN183.66+0.33%
GOOG166.28+0.28%
META498.12+0.10%
NFLX643.71-0.34%
Crypto Live
BTC68,214+0.62%
ETH3,427+0.47%
Top Factors (Current Window)Impact
order_flow_imbalance_1h+0.68
realized_vol_5m_zscore+0.42
btc_dom_momentum+0.31
funding_rate_cross-0.28
spx_correlation_30d-0.22
Transformation Pipeline
Raw Signals
Normalize
Denoise
Features
Model Stack
Gradient BoostersTransformersState-SpaceBayesian ModelsRegime Filters
78%Bullish
Aggregation
Predicted Distribution (90D)
Calibration (90D)
- Calibration Score
- 0.93
- Sharpness
- 1.42
- Log Loss
- 0.317
- Brier Score
- 0.072
Chain IDSW1-PC-2025-05-20-A1B7
Data As OfMay 20, 2025 09:41:22 UTC
FrequencyTick & Intraday
Horizon90 Days
OwnerStonewell Research
StatusIntact
Open the Forecast
Inspect the reason.
Stonewell is not a signal feed. It is a research workspace where probabilities, drivers, regimes, and validation history are visible together.- Current Regime
- Stress
- Duration
- 2d 6h
- Probability
- 64%
Up Drivers
order_flow_imbalance_1h+0.68
realized_vol_5m_zscore+0.42
btc_dom_momentum+0.31
Down Driversfunding_rate_cross-0.28
spx_correlation_30d-0.22
dxy_momentum_5d-0.17
-1.00+1.090-day calibration E90 78%E50 93%
Walk-forward (1y)
- Sharpe
- 1.42
- Hit Rate
- 64%
- Max DD
- -9.1%
Equities (US)3,500+Large Mid Small
Crypto2BTC ETH
TechFinancialsHealthcareIndustrials...
Updated daily * Survivorship bias free * AdjustedBOTToday at 09:41- Probability: 76%
- Horizon: 1D
- Top Driver: order_flow_imbalance_1h
Live Operations
Production research,
visible by default.
Models are monitored, retrained, and validated in the open — so you can see the work, not just the results.US EquitiesFX / RatesCryptoEU EquitiesAsia-PacificCommoditiesGlobal Macro
~10minRaw tick tocalibrated probability
99.99%7-day uptime
5Live modelsCrypto 2 • Equity 3
30+Covered symbolsEquities first • BTC • ETH
Validation active Coverage breach rollback Grafana monitored Audit trail live View full status page →
FAQ
Common questions, clear answers.
Open Access
Test the thesis,
not your patience.
See live probabilities, key drivers, and model validation without digging through disconnected tools.$ stonewellone --init
✓ auth verified
✓ models synced (5)
✓ regime detected (trend ↗)
✓ calibration loaded
✓ terminal ready
→ opening /predictions/live